Shared Socio-economic Pathways (SSPs) is the latest set of emission scenarios used in climate modeling. In CMIP6, they replaced the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs), which were developed by the climate-modelleing community in CMIP5 to predict future greenhouse gas emissions and concentrations.
The SSP-scenarios consider socio-economic aspects such as population growth, equality, energy use and global carbon dioxide emissions to a greater extent, to better match the needs of users, such as decision makers, planners and politicians.
SSP Narratives
There are five so called SSP narratives that have different characteristics. In the Climate Information Portal the following three narratives are chosen: SSP1 (Sustainability), SSP2 (Middle of the Road) and SSP5 (Fossil-fueled Development).
SSP1 (Sustainability)
Characterized by:
- sustainable growth
- globalization
- rapid development in environmental technology
- increased equality within and between countries
Consumption patterns are moving towards:
- reduced materialism
- reduced need for raw materials
- lower energy intensity and reduced dependence on fossil fuels
These trends mean that challenges associated with emission reductions and adaptation are relatively low.
SSP2 (Middle of the Road)
Characterized by a development that largely follows the historical development. Differences between countries in development and economic inequality persist. Some progress is being made in sustainable development. These trends mean that the challenges associated with emission reductions and adaptation are higher than in SSP1.
SSP5 (Fossil-fueled Development)
- rapid conventional technology development
- rapid globalization
- rapid economic growth and investment in health and education
- Use of fossil fuels persists
- Lifestyles are about material consumption and require a lot of energy
- Local environmental issues such as air pollution are taken care of
